Autonomous Factor Forecast Quality

Quantifying IT forecast quality

In this paper, we showed how to quantify the quality of IT forecasts based on Boehm’s cone of uncertainty and DeMarco’s Estimating Quality Factor. With these, we support decision making by providing critical information on IT forecasting quality to IT governors. We illustrated that plotting forecast to actual ratios against a predefined referential conical shape reveals potential biases, for in...

Improving Forecast Quality in Practice

Preview Robert and Fotios discuss the results of their important new survey on the key elements for improving the quality of the forecasting function. A lot more is involved here than software and statistical methodology; it’s also about removing organizational impediments, developing appropriate performance benchmarks and motivational incentives, and improving data reliability and flow within ...

IT Forecast Quality in Measure and Number

Interval Forecast of Water Quality Parameters

Abstract. The current quality control methodology adopted by the water distribution service provider in the metropolitan region of Porto Portugal, is based on simple heuristics and empirical knowledge. Based on the domain complexity and data volume, this application is a perfect candidate to apply data mining process. In this paper, we propose a new methodology to predict the range of normality...

Quantifying forecast quality of IT business value

This article discusses how to quantify the forecasting quality of IT business value. We address a common economic indicator often used to determine the business value of project proposals, the Net Present Value (NPV). To quantify the forecasting quality of IT business value, we develop a generalized method that is able to account for asymptotic cases and negative valued entities. We assess the ...